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Well the smoke has cleared from the first decisive battle of the campaign. While there are a few smoldering bodies left among the carnage Chris Dodd, Joe Biden, the wounded list is the real story. Hillary’s expected loss, of course is the bigger story on the Democrat side, somehow the media seems to forget that she hadn’t really invested a whole lot in Iowa and is giving the full swing of momentum to Obama. Meanwhile, Huckabee walked away with a stunning victory over billionaire Romney. While the David and Goliath metaphors are roaring with the Evangelical Right, their victory in Iowa may be more attributed to the vast center of independents and moderates that are abandoning the Republican Party in droves.
The real story is in the numbers. Three times as many young people voted in the Iowa Caucus this round with a 4 to 1 margin going to the Democrats. Both Obama and Edwards attracted record numbers of Youth, in particular, Obama, who galvanized Iowa college students to show up and caucus, a feat that was unexpected, and impressive. The Iowa Democrats were anticipating as many as 200,000 people as a worst case scenario, these numbers were exceeded, reaching an unprecedented 236,000 participants, contrasted to the 112,000 Republican participants, the energy and momentum clearly favor the Democrats by a wide margin. Many of the caucus participants were new, independent, young and calling for change and they choose to Caucus with the Democrats by more than a 2 to 1 margin.
What remained on the Right was a group that was 60% Evangelical Christian. The fundamentalist religious conservatives are claiming victory, as their grass-roots, church-based organization crushed the Mormon Romney with force. However the battle has revealed division in the Republican flock. The Social Conservatives favor Huckabee, while the traditional base of the Republican Party, which tends to be pro-science and pro-business, favor someone like Romney or Guiliani. They are alarmed at the monster they have created. A guy like Huckabee is a business liberal, his brand of self-described Wall St. Populism does not play well with the traditional Republican business elite, and they’ve branded the Huckster a “Liberalâ€. Huckabee has a long way to go before he can claim victory on the Republican side, and many are predicting that his victory will swing the nomination to someone like McCain now, ironically, the most hated man by Social Conservatives.
The irony is that Huckabee may be the best chance the Republicans have. That is, if he appeases the out of control religious base so that a sensible moderate can win, a candidate who will actually have a chance against the vastly more appealing Democratic candidates. Regardless, McCain has lost most of his traditional appeal, and he’s older now than Reagan, our oldest President, was in 1980.
The youth and vigor seems to be awakening for a call to change, while the Left of all ages is awakening loudly against 7 years of disastrous Right-Wing government. The Evangelicals may have had a lot of political capital in ’04, but that capital was entrusted to George WWIII Bush, who spent it faster than an old lady in Vegas. Yes they had their moment in the sun, and it hasn’t quite set yet, but the weather is changing rapidly. That’s not a global warming reference, by the way, although the change is occurring fastest in the heartland, where the weather is bad, the times are tough and Christians are awakening from the idea that Jesus was a Republcian. Movements are opening up all over the Bible Belt attempting to de-politicize the Christian movement. The momentum is swinging against the social conservatives as economics and world trade have the heartland more worried about our nation’s decline rather than policing sodomy.
The Decline of Social Conservatism
Source: Pew Research
The Republican Party is tearing itself apart. Many who call themselves Evangelical are upset with the economic state of this country, and a guy like Huckabee has proven that he can subvert the traditional unholy alliance of phony populist “loud-mouthed†business shills, fundamentalist televangelists and Neo-Liberals (pro-business, anti-social programs) the traditional conservative core of the Republican Party. Evangelicals are breaking away from the televangelist Christian Coalition, Libertarians are tired of the private intrusion and aggressive war. All the while this tiny little elite core of super wealthy businessmen are losing control of their own party. Wow they must be really worried, and I hope they are!
The business elite must be further worried about the prospects of Hillary losing. Rupert Murdoch met with Bill and Hillary a year or so back, we did a story on that then, and so-called Hillary-Care is vastly influenced by the crooked insurance companies, who have and continue to contribute heavily to her campaigns. With Obama breaking out of the pack and Edwards taking silver, the calls for change on the Left are just as strong as they are on the Right. People are upset, WE WANT CHANGE AND WE WANT IT NOW!
While I still like Edwards the most, I would welcome Obama in place of Hillary. It’s too bad though, Edwards hopes were pinned on Iowa, and his future is uncertain. Perhaps his anti-corporate talk came just a tad bit too late, or perhaps he just wasn’t able so succumb to the 5 to 1 spending advantage that Obama has. The Obamanator has very little track record and very little well-established opinions, however he has been able to capitalize on the Center-Left calls for change. His inexperience has become his greatest asset, as well as liability. He’s also been very wise about using his race as a plus, evoking Martin Luther King Jr. in his announcement to run and subtly saying “they said this day would never come†in his victory speech last night. Well I’ve never been a fan of using race pro or con, however, Obama seems wise enough to be able to skirt the middle and maybe he can pull it off. Who knows? I certainly didn’t expect an Obama blow out last night and he surprised me. He certainly looks Presidential and that’s sadly half the battle.
In the end, however, the first round did not disappoint. It’s certainly not a knock out and there isn’t any blood on the mat just yet, which means it’s going to be an exciting election. One that is very promising for us over here on the Left and even brings some hope that the Plutocracy in this nation may finally be checked, at the very least, if not smashed all together.
Bring on Round 2!